!["Done in by a F**king Corona": Caravan Bar and Restaurant Officially Closes](https://www.thebeijinger.com/sites/default/files/styles/blog_list_image/public/thebeijinger/blog-images/379541/caravan_beijing_closure_coronavirus.jpg ""Done in by a F**king Corona": Caravan Bar and Restaurant Officially Closes")
A good summary.
There are indications that the mortality rate could be considerably lower than 2%, a recent study of the cluster of cases in one German company indicates that two of the first four patients only displayed symptoms such as a mild sore throat and slight cough. It's not as if the overwhelmed Chinese health system has the time or resources to go searching for asymtomatic/ mildly symptomatic patients right now.
Although these cases in Germany also suggest that this new coronavirus is transmissible when symptomless, which makes me pessimistic that this virus can be eradicated swiftly on a national or global level, and has the potential to overwhelm the health systems in developing countries, particularly SE Asia.
Something that I’ve yet to see mentioned in any news report is that China is estimated to have 100 million people suffering from COPD, hardly surprising when factoring in the air pollution and smoking here. The link between COPD and pneumonia cases/mortality is well-established.
There are so many unknowns and it still feels very much like the beginning, rather than the end of this crisis. It's probably best to reserve any further judgement until further statistics become available in the coming weeks/months.
"There are so many unknowns and it still feels very much like the beginning, rather than the end of this crisis."
By all means, rely on your feelings. I'll stick with ol' Bobby Lee, "Do not take counsel of your fears." Heck, when I was a kid, there was Hong Kong flu. A million people died '68-'69. A couple of generations before that, Spanish Flu killed more foks than WW1. Those were crises. This is highly inconvenient and it sucks (sucks hard, with pointy little weasel teeth.) Armageddon it ain't.
Let's pull out all the stops, eh? What are you going to do if an asteroid hits Earth BEFORE the authorities have corona in hand?
I wasn’t suggesting that armageddon is imminent, simply that there are a lot of ‘known unknowns,’ which will become clearer once the bigger picture emerges in the coming weeks.
You reference the Hong Kong flu, which only had a 0.5% death rate, yet still killed a million, which demonstrates the danger of a novel contagion. According to the official data, the death rate of this new virus is around 2% (although I suspect it’s considerably lower due to the likely number of unrecorded mild cases) and appears highly infectious, so people are understandably concerned. It’s necessary to be cautious and take all the sensible precautions you can during an epidemic, especially one caused by a novel disease, whilst avoiding panic and disregarding media hysteria.
Just like everyone else, I can’t estimate with any degree of certainty when and how this will end, although as coronaviruses are generally known to be more virulent in colder climates, warmer temperatures and higher humidity in May should bring some respite, if things don’t improve before then. Let’s hope they do.
