Observations on the Midway Point of Beijing's First-Ever Red Alert

We’re at the midpoint of Beijing’s first-ever red alert over bad air, and things are going as swimmingly as they could be given that we’re dealing with some of the ugliest air on the planet ... though not the ugliest.

Thankfully – or perhaps tragically – there are 55 other cities worldwide that have it worse than us on average, and even one that has it worse than us right now: a dubious distinction that belongs to New Delhi.

Thursday at noon the odds/events car restrictions will be lifted, and Friday the kids of the city can go back to school, so we're free to resume normal life ... for the time being.

As I sit nestled between the throaty growl of the full-blast setting of my IQ Air and the shrill whirl of my DIY air cannon, my trusty Laser Egg by my side, I deliver to you, my dear readers, some random observations on the first 36 hours of lockdown at Ground Zero:

Bad Air Awareness Is at an All-Time High
As a subway commuter and frequent pedestrian in Beijing, I have an obsessive-compulsive habit of counting how many people I see wearing masks. I typically look at the first 100 people that I walk by; on bad air days the number of mask-wearers usually hovers around 20.

Today, for the first time since mask-wearing was in vogue during the SARS epidemic of late 2003/early 2004, my count of mask-wearers approached 50 percent – 2.5 times more than usual.

Of course that still means than more than half of the city's commuters took no heed whatsoever and faced the red alert unprotected.

Public Employees Need to Get the Message
Sadly the people that need protection the most – those that work in the subway system, on the streets, or outdoors – were all but unprotected. I did not see a single mask on the dozens of security guards, streetside food vendors, or bus and taxi drivers I passed on my commute.

The Forecasts Have Been Right
There was some doubt about whether it was possible to forecast pollution three days in advance, but the weathermen have been right on the money so far: the Ministry of Environmental Protection’s official average for Tuesday was 295, and while Wednesday’s official figures are not yet out, the sites I’ve been montoring have indicating the AQI has been hovering in the 300s all day.

The three forecasting sites we follow all show the air clearing on Thursday: aqcast.com has the air clearing by early Thursday morning, airvisual.com has it by late morning, and aqicn.org has it clear by early afternoon.

Should it clear Thursday, the forecast of three consecutive days of AQI 200 would be technically incorrect – as the red alert was sounded Monday night, meaning the next three days (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday) should be bad. As it stands now, Thursday could be quite good (relatively speaking).

However, we might give the powers that be a mulligan this time around because Monday was in fact over 200 (thus we have a three-day stretch already confirmed), and this red alert was more of an upgrade to an orange alert that had been issued Sunday.

What Happens Next?
However, despite Thursday's forecasted clearing, we're due for another bout of bad air this weekend: If aqicn.org’s pollution forecasting is to be believed, the air will likely once again be over AQI 200 for three consecutive days from December 12 through December 14 (Saturday through Monday). Will another red alert be declared? We’ll find out soon enough.

Drivers Fell in Line
Adherence to the odds-events rule was near universal in Beijing. From personal observations on Tuesday (even day) and Wednesday (odd day), there were almost no cars violating the protocol. That’s indicative of two things: the universal efficiency of communications (with a mere 12 hours' notice, the drivers of an entire city of 20 million knew exactly what to do); and the power of rules backed by actual enforcement (drivers caught violating the odds/evens rule by any of the city's ubiquitous traffic cameras face hefty fines).

A Generation of Beijing Children Can Now Look Forward to Smog Days
Most schools around Beijing – even those with sophisticated air filtration systems – shut down on order of the education ministry for Tuesday through Thursday. This naturally caused shouts of joy from students citywide, many who have have never seen school called due to inclement weather.

As Beijing-based comedian Jesse Appell perhaps best put it, “Kids get off from school to have smogball fights and build smogmen with coal for eyes, go smogbogganing down hills on smogtubes, and make smog angels in the dust.”

Laser Eggs Out of Stock
Those attempting to procure a Laser Egg were shocked to find that the product is completely out of stock, despite a sudden 25 percent price hike December 1. Air filter retailers and mask companies reported similar situations (that is, if they had time between an avalanche of orders to answer our queries at all).

Uber and Taxis Were Easy to Find
I took two trips via Uber over the past two days and snagging a ride was typical, with no additional waiting times (though late night Tuesday the surge pricing was twice the norm). Drivers said business was brisk, particularly during rush hours.

The Subway Wasn’t Overwhelmed
Surprisingly the morning commute by subway was no more crowded than usual despite the restrictions on driving; in fact the Shuangjing station, normally one of the more crowded stations, did not have its typical waiting line to get into the station that is usually present on weekday mornings.

The Red Alert Didn't Make the Air Good
Despite half the city's cars being grounded, factories ground to a halt and a number of other measures, the air still sucked ... though it sucked significantly less than last week's readings that went off the charts. The glass-half-full look at this means that with an enormous effort, some level of pollutants were contained; however, the glass-half-empty folks will be quick to note that the air was still terrible.

Regardless, even if all this red alert has done was to raise the awareness of the effects of bad air in the city, that's still a significant accomplishment and another step on the long journey of trying to get this monster under control.

Photo: Michael Wester

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On Friday, I scanned a QR code on Beijingkids magazine and received an email from origins about a 50RMB discount for an egg for a special xmas promotion. I thought "great! I'd love to have a second one for the kids' room!" and I placed the order. Then my wife called them to make sure it would be delivered before xmas. Guess the answer? "We will fulfill your order before the end of January!!!" Sorry guys, you don't continue running an xmas promotional campaign if you can't deliver for 1 month... I was already very upset when they raised their price during the pollution peak, and now even more. I will ask them to refund me for my last order.

Steven Schwankert wrote:

If a product is sold out, that's usually an indicator that it's underpriced, regardless of the cost of production.

In a manufacturing environment it could also be the inability to accurately forecast demand.

Point/counterpoint: Are iPhones underpriced in China? Discuss.

Interestingly, in Apple's case, I think that core to the marketing strategy is to make sure the new phone models are hard to get initially ... it boosts their image as a product in hot demand.

Books by current and former Beijinger staffers

http://astore.amazon.com/truerunmedia-20

If a product is sold out, that's usually an indicator that it's underpriced, regardless of the cost of production.

britomart wrote:

Laser Eggs Out of Stock
Those attempting to procure a Laser Egg were shocked to find that the product is completely out of stock, despite a sudden 25 percent price hike December 1.

So what's with the 25 percent price hike on the Laser Egg? Is the new price reflecting the actual cost of production? Or is Origins simply taking advantage of the current mess to gouge Beijingers worried about air quality?

Here is their announcement from their official WeChat account:

"Dear friends,

We treasure all the positive feedback we’ve had from you since we put our fantastic little Laser Egg on the market in June, just five months ago. We’ve heard, over and over, that it’s a useful tool that has made a change in peoples' lives.

We want to act on that feedback by continuing to innovate – we have a series of great products in mind that will help solve other problems in our daily lives.

You know that Origins is a young company and you’ll understand our logic, that we thought the Laser Egg was such an amazing tool that we felt everyone should be able to have one. We priced it as low as we could.

We now see that, thanks to Laser Egg’s initial success, we can expand our product line – cooler, even more interesting products are in the pipeline. But to do this and get the products to you, efficiently, we need more funds to grow.

We know you’ll understand our reluctance as well as our reasons: we need to raise the price of the Laser Egg, which will sell for RMB499 as of today, December 1st 2015. It’s still available via WeChat, Paypal, in our office at Beixinqiao, and in the April Gourmets across Beijing.

And if you dream of products that will make your life easier and more comfortable, ask us if we can find the solutions! We’d love to try.

The Origins Team

Please note that the prices for our air purifiers and filters remains the same. Also, please note that this increase in price is not related to the recent spike in pollution, December 1st was chosen some time in advance as the date for this change."

 

I really love what they are doing and personally I am more than happy to give them more money to fund future developments.

However I have to say this was a really bad PR move on their part that could have been avoided.

People love the device. It's really useful and even at 499 its good value given what's out there.

But anyone in air filtration knows the air is more likely to be bad in the winter, so a terrible time (PR wise) to schedule a price hike. Given the hike is (by their own admission) not related to the costs of production and it was pre-scheduled, it seems to have been entirely in their power to choose to do it at another time.

If I were them, I'd reverse the price hike and use the goodwill they've earned by making a great product to launch a Kickstarter campaign. My guess is that in the span of two weeks on Kickstarted they'd easily get 10x what they can raise by adding RMB 100 to the price of each device.

Books by current and former Beijinger staffers

http://astore.amazon.com/truerunmedia-20

Laser Eggs Out of Stock
Those attempting to procure a Laser Egg were shocked to find that the product is completely out of stock, despite a sudden 25 percent price hike December 1.

So what's with the 25 percent price hike on the Laser Egg? Is the new price reflecting the actual cost of production? Or is Origins simply taking advantage of the current mess to gouge Beijingers worried about air quality?

Doubt wisely; in strange way / To stand inquiring right is not to stray; / To sleep, or run wrong, is. (Donne, Satire III)

Chinese news reports this morning are indicating that although the Red Alert failed to clear the air, it did have a measurable impact: reports are saying that pollutants have been reduced over the period by 30% and the pm 2.5 would have been 10% worse over the period if the controls were not put in place.

 

Http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2015-12/09/content_22675510.htm

 

Books by current and former Beijinger staffers

http://astore.amazon.com/truerunmedia-20